UFC Fight Night - Cerrone vs. Medeiros

UFC Fight Night - Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Frank Erwin Center
Austin, TX USA

Predictions

Tim Williams vs. Oscar Piechota

Tim Williams (31 years old)

-               6 foot 2

-               185 pounds (middleweight)

-               Reach (unknown)

-               15-3-0

-               5 fight win streak

-               Won 8 of last 10 fights

Oscar Piechota (28 years old)

-               6 foot

-               185 pounds (middleweight)

-               76 inch reach

-               10-0-1

-               10 fight win steak (1 draw)

-               Won 10 of 11 fights (1 draw)

Oscar Piechota is undefeated with 10 wins and 1 draw. Oscar is a ground fighter with good takedowns and submissions, with 5 of 10 wins (50%) coming by way of submission. Once Oscar takes a hold of his opponent he has a pit-bull like grip, never letting go until the opponent is on the ground. Oscar also also has 4 of his 10 wins (40%) coming by way of knockout. He is a diverse fighter, with more of a ground game, with a plan of taking opponents down to the ground to end the fight. He has 60% striking accuracy in the UFC with 56 of 93 strikes landing. Tim Williams is on a 5 fight win streak with 8 wins in his last 10 fights. Tim Williams is a good ground fighter with with 9 of 15 wins (60%) coming from submission. Tim Williams is not a striker with only 2 knockout wins (1 of those being a doctor’s stoppage). Both fighters are ground fighters with high submission percentages but the difference in this fight will be the advantage that Oscar Piechota has on the feet, with better striking to soften Tim Williams up for a submission.

Prediction: Oscar Piechota

Winner: Oscar Piechota

Joshua Burkman vs. Alex Morono 

Joshua Burkman (37 years old)

-               5 foot 10

-               170 lbs (welterweight division)

-               72 inch reach

-               28-16-0

-               4 loss streak (last win on February 6, 2016 against KJ Noons by decision)

-               Won 2 of last 10 fights

Alex Morono (27 years old)

-               5 foot 11

-               170 lbs (welterweight)

-               73 inch reach

-               13-4-1

-               1 loss streak (fight before that was overturned because his opponent Niko Price tested positive for marijuana)

-               won 7 of last 10 fights

Alex Morono is a striker and will try to knockout Joshua Burkman. Alex Morono is not strong on the ground, and if he is able to keep the fight standing he will win by decision or knockout. He has an advantage of 10 years in youth. Joshua Burkman is carrying bad momentum with a 4 fight loss streak with only winning 2 of his last 10 fights. Alex Morono is a fast, rangy counterstriker with knockout power with 4 of his 13 wins by knockout (31%). He is an aggressive striker. Alex Morono has a 42% striking accurary with 237 of 585 strikes connecting. Josh Burkman is a more well-rounded fighter, with good striking but also good ground game with 10 of his 28 wins coming by submission (36%). Josh Burkman has more cage experience than Alex Moreno with 45 fights compared to Moreno who has only 17 fights. Alex hasn’t had a victory coming from submission since June 14, 2013. Josh Burkman has a 44% striking accuracy with 539 of 1232 strikes landed. I believe that Alex Morono’s aggressive striking will be too much for Joshua Burkman to handle and the fight will go to Alex Morono by knockout. 

Prediction winner: Alex Morono

Winner: Alex Morono



Sarah Moras vs. Lucie Pudilova

Sarah Moras (29 years old)

-               5 foot 7

-               135 pounds (bantamweight)

-               67 inch reach

-               5-3-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 2 of last 3 fights

Lucie Pudilova (23 years old)

-               5 foot 8

-               135 pounds (bantamweight)

-               67 inch reach

-               7-2-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 2 of last 3 fights

Sarah Moras is on a 1 fight win streak with only 7 professional MMA fights. Sarah is a ground fighter but with a lack of submissions completed. Her striking game isn’t seen often because of her strategy to bring the fight to the ground. She is very good at getting the fight to the ground and winning rounds off of ground control. She has a 36% striking accuracy with 36 of 96 strikes landing. Lucie Pudilova is on a 1 fight win streak with 9 professional MMA fights. Lucie is a better all around fighter than Sarah Moras with both a ground game and a striking game. She has a 41% striking accuracy with 152 of 373 strikes landing. She also has better striking defense than Sarah in UFC fight with 54% avoided strikes compared to Sarah Moras 49% avoided strikes. Lucie has good ground game with solid takedown defense of 88%. Lucie Pudilova has an advantage on the feet with solid striking and 2 of her 7 wins coming from way of knockout. I believe that Lucie Pudilova will win this fight via decision.

Prediction: Lucie Pudilova

Winner: Lucie Pudilova



Roberto Sanchez vs. Joby Sanchez

Roberto Sanchez (31 years old)

-               5 foot 6

-               125 pounds (flyweight)

-               67 inch reach

-               7-1-0

-               1 fight losing streak

-               Won 2 of last 3 fights

Joby Sanchez (26 years old)

-               5 foot 6

-               125 pounds (flyweight)

-               68 inch reach

-               11-2-0

-               4 fight winning streak

-               Won 4 of 5 last fights

Roberto Sanchez is solely a ground fighter with a good submission game. He has the capability to switch between submissions with ease. Roberto Sanchez has won 6 of his 7 fights by way of submission, with 4 of those being by rear-naked choke. In his UFC fights he has a 33% striking accuracy, with 2 of 6 strikes landing. Joby Sanchez is a good well-rounded fighter with a good ground game, striking, and takedown defense. Joby has proven his ability to get off the ground when he is taken down against very good wrestlers, like JP Buys. He is a more aggressive striker than Roberto Sanchez, with 451 strikes thrown in the UFC. I don’t think that Roberto is well rounded enough to win in the UFC with solely a ground game.  Joby also has much more experience in the UFC than Roberto with 5 UFC fights compared to Roberto’s 1 UFC fight. I believe that Joby’s aggressive style and takedown defense will be the difference in this fight, with Roberto not being able to hold Joby down. I think that Joby will win this fight by decision.

Prediction: Joby Sanchez

Winner: Roberto Sanchez



Geoff Neal vs. Brian Camozzi

Geoff Neal (27 years old)

-               5 foot 11

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               76 inch reach

-               8-2-0

-               2 fight win streak

-               Won 4 of last 5 fights

Brian Camozzi (26 years old)

-               6 foot 2

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               78 inch reach

-               7-4-0

-               2 fight losing streak

-               Won 3 of last 5 fights

Geoff Neal is a knockout artist with 5 of his 8 wins coming by way of knockout within the first 2 rounds. Geoff Neal got a quick TKO win against Chase Waldon in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series 3. He hasn’t shown much ground game in terms of submission but he is a strong stocky fighter with the ability to take down his opponent. Brian Camozzi is a tall rangy striker who like to keep the fight standing. He throws many kicks to keep his opponents at a distance because of his height advantage. He has had 2 UFC fights, which he has lost by way of knockout. His striking accuracy in the UFC is at 27% with 58 of 217 strikes landing. He is a patient opponent who likes to keep the fight at a distance. I think that Geoff Neal’s size and aggressive striking will be too much for Brian Camozzi. I believe that this will be a striking match with little ground game because of the style of both fighters. When you have an aggressive, accurate striker like Geoff Neal, you have to take him to the ground or keep him at a distance and I don’t believe that Brian Camozzi will be able to do either. I predict Geoff Neal to win this fight by knockout.

Prediction: Geoff Neal

Winner: Geoff Neal



Jared Gordon vs. Diego Ferreira

Jared Gordon (29 years old)

-               5 foot 9

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               68 inch reach

-               14-1-0

-               5 fight win streak

-               Won 9 of 10 last fights

Diego Ferreira (33 years old)

-               5 foot 8

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               74 inch reach

-               12-2-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 8 of 10 last fights

Diego Ferreira is a ground game fighter with 5 fights in the UFC. Despite Ferreira’s good ground game he has only secured 1 of 9 (11%) attempted takedowns in the UFC. Ferreira has good takedown defence with 60% of attempted takedowns against him being avoided. Diego Ferreira has an experience advantage over Jared Gordon with 5 fights in the UFC over Jared Gordon’s 2 fights in the UFC.   Jordon Gordon is a striker with 168 of 331 (51%) strikes landing, with good striking defense of 74% of upcoming strikes avoided. Jordon Gordon also has good takedown abilities with 6 of 13 (46%) takedowns secured. Jordan also has very good takedown defence with 100% takedowns being avoided; with Diego Ferreira also only succeeding in 11% of takedowns. Jordon Gordon has an advantage over Diego Ferreira with Diego only landing 138 or 373 (37%) of strikes compared to Jordan Gordon’s 51% of landed strikes. I believe that Jared Gordon will win this fight by decision.

Prediction: Jared Gordon

Winner: Diego Ferreira



Sage Northcutt vs. Thibault Gouti

Sage Northcutt (21 years old)

-               6 foot

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               72 inch reach

-               9-2-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 3 of 5 last fights

Thibault Gouti (30 years old)

-               5 foot 10

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               72 inch reach

-               12-3-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 2 of 5 last fights

Sage Northcutt is a young fighter with plenty of UFC octagon experience for a 21 year old, with a 6 fight experience in the octagon (winning 4 of 6 fights). Sage is a good well-rounded fighter with heavy striking, landing 180 of 335 strikes (54%) in the UFC. Sage’s weakness seems to be his submission defense, with both of his loses coming by way of submission, with both being in UFC fights. Thibault Gouti is on a bad run in the UFC, losing 3 of his 4 UFC fights, once by KO, and twice by submission. Thibault’s striking is not nearly as accurate as Sage Northcutt’s, landing 74 of 172 (43%) strikes. Thibault is more of a boxer, compared to Sage Northcutt who has more of a diverse, kickboxing fighting style. Thibault will do a good job at keeping this fight on the feet, with a 79% takedown defense. I don’t think that Thibault will be able to get in close of Sage Northcutt’s range, and will be kept at a distance by kicks, and he wil be picked apart on the feet. I predict a decision win for Sage Nortcutt.

Prediction: Sage Northcutt

Winner: Sage Northcutt

Steven Peterson vs. Brandon Davis

Steven Peterson (27 years old)

-               5 foot 9

-               145 pounds (featherweight)

-               69 inch reach

-               15-6-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 8 of last 10 fights

Brandon Davis (27 years old)

-               5 foot 10

-               145 pounds (featherweight)

-               72 inch reach

-               8-3-0

-               1 fight losing streak

-               Won 7 of last 10 fights

Brandon Davis is coming off a unanimous decision loss from UFC 220. Davis is a striker with only 2 of 8 wins coming by way of submission. Brandon Davis has an iron chin with the strategy of eating shots in order to trade shots back in all of his fights. He has a 34% striking accuracy with 38 of 112 strikes landing. He is a fighter who overwhelms his opponents with pressure, especially when he keeps coming forward after eating many shots, similar to a Nate Diaz style. He has good head movement with 66% of strikes being avoided, while taunting his opponent while avoiding strikes. Steven Peterson is a precise striker with ground game as well with 7 of 15 wins coming by way of submission. He is a more defense striker than Brandon Davis, being more patient, and staying more at range to avoid eating unnecessary shots. I believe that Peterson will land more but will not be able to knockout Brandon Davis because of Davis’ iron chin. Steven Peterson is a better all around fighter than Brandon Davis because of his experience on the ground and his ability to avoid more shots. I believe that Steven Peterson will win this fight by decision. 

Prediction: Steven Peterson

Winner: Brandon Davis

Thiago Alves vs. Curtis Millender

Thiago Alves (34 years old)

-               5 foot 10

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               70 inch reach

-               22-11-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 3 of last 5 fights

Curtis Millender (30 years old)

-               6 foot 3

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               78 inch reach

-               14-3-0

-               6 fight win streak

-               Won 5 of 5 last fights

Thiago Alves is a veteran fighter with 22 fights in the UFC. Thiago Alves is a well-rounded fighter with striking and good takedowns; he’s not a submission finisher with only 2 of his 22 wins coming by way of submission. Thiago Alves is a good striker, landing 863 of 2059 strikes (42%) in the UFC. Thiago Alves is a knockout artist with 12 of his 22 wins (55%) coming by way of knockout. Curtis Millender is having his UFC debut against Thiago Alves. Curtis has knockout power, winning 3 of his last 4 fights by way of knockout. Curtis Millender has won none of his fights by way of submission, with 9 of his 14 wins (64%) coming by way of decision. I believe that Thiago Alves’ is more well-rounded than Curtis and this well be a problem for Curtis when the fight hits the ground. Curtis is a big size and reach advantage over Thiago Alves by 5 inches in height and 8 inches in reach, but I believe that Thiago Alves’ UFC experience and veteran IQ will win him this fight by decision.

Prediction: Thiago Alves

Winner: Curtis Millender

James Vick vs. Francisco Trinaldo

James Vick (30 years old)

-               6 foot 3

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               76 inch reach

-               12-1-0

-               3 fight win streak

-               Won 4 of 5 last fights

Francisco Trinaldo (39 years old)

-               5 foot 8

-               155 pounds (lightweight)

-               70 inch reach

-               22-5-0

-               1 fight win streak

-               Won 4 of 5 last fights

James Vick is a top 15 fighter with 9 UFC fights. James Vick is a very tall rangy fighter for the lightweight division, standing at 6 foot 3. James Vick is also very hard to take down to the ground with a 62% takedown defense. James Vick is more of a point fighter; he doesn’t have knockout power with only 3 of his 12 wins coming by way of knockout, with only 2 of those being in the UFC. Francisco Trinaldo is a Brazilian fighter with 16 fight UFC experience, winning 12 of those 16 fights. Francisco Trinaldo has won most of those fights by decision, winning only 3 of those fights by knockout (1 by doctor stoppage). Francisco Trinaldo is a more accurate striker with 619 of 1324 (47%) strikes landing. I believe that if this fight goes to the ground James Vick is at a disadvantage, but if he keeps the fight standing Francisco Trinaldo will have a hard time getting in close, with James Vick keeping Francisco at range with jabs and leg kicks. Francisco Trinaldo has only fought 1 person (Michael Chiesa) who is over 6 foot tall and he lost by submission. I believe that James Vick is too rangy for Francisco Trinaldo and will out point him, and James Vick will win by decision.

Prediction: James Vick

Winner: James Vick

Derrick Lewis vs. Marcin Tybura

Derrick Lewis (33 years old)

-               6 foot 3

-               265 pounds (heavyweight)

-               79 inch reach

-               18-5-0

-               1 fight losing streak

-               Won 4 of 5 last fights

Marcin Tybura (32 years old)

-               6 foot 3

-               247 pounds (heavyweight)

-               78 inch reach

-               16-3-0

-               1 fight losing streak

-               Won 3 of 5 last fights

Derrick Lewis is a veteran UFC fighter with 12 fights, winning 9 of those 12 fights. Derrick Lewis is a knockout artist, with 8 of his 9 UFC wins by knockout. Derrick Lewis is a good striker, landing 326 of 640 strikes (51%). Derrick Lewis only has 1 win by submission, and has only attempted 15 takedowns in his 12 UFC fights, succeeding in only 4 of those 12 takedowns. Marcin Tybura has less experience than Derrick Lewis with only 5 fights in the UFC, winning 3 of those 5 UFC fights by way of knockout. Marcin Tybura has won 6 of his 16 MMA wins by submission, being a more well-rounded fighter than Derrick Lewis, with better ground game and many more submission wins. Marcin Tybura is an accurate striker as well, landing 291 of 578 strikes (50%). I believe that Marcin Tybura has to take this fight to the ground if he wants a chance of winning, especially because he has secured 5 of 9 takedowns (56%), where he has an advantage over Derrick Lewis on the ground. I believe that Marcin Tybyra will win this fight by submission because of his advantage on the ground, and because Marcin Tybura has never been knocked out and I believe that Marcin will drag Derrick Lewis into deep waters.

Prediction: Marcin Tybura

Winner: Derrick Lewis



Donald Cerrone vs. Yancy Medeiros

Donald Cerrone (34 years old)

-               6 foot 1

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               73 inch reach

-               32-10-0 1NC

-               3 fight losing streak

-               Won 3 of 5 last fights

Yancy Medeiros (30 years old)

-               5 foot 10

-               170 pounds (welterweight)

-               75 inch reach

-               15-4-0

-               3 fight win streak

-               Won 4 of 5 last fights

Donald Cerrone is a veteran fighter with 26 fights in the UFC. Donald Cerrone is on a 3 fight losing streak, with of those losses coming by way of knockout. Donald is a very well-rounded fighter with good kickboxing and submissions, with 16 of his 32 wins (50%) coming by way of submission. He has good striking accuracy, landing 1433 of 2984 strikes (48%). Donald Cerrone is a diverse striker, with 5 of his 8 knockout wins coming by way of head kick or head kick and strikes. Yancy Medeiros has a lot of experience, with 11 fights in the UFC. Yancy won 6 of his 11 UFC fights, with 2 of those wins coming by way of knockout and 3 of those wins coming by way of submission. Yancy is also a well-rounded fighter but with less accurate striking than cowboy, landing 354 of 980 strikes (36%). Yancy doesn’t try many takedown, with only 3 takedown attempts in his 11 UFC fights, only succeeding once. Yancy has a high takedown defense, avoiding 83% of takedowns attempted against him. I believe that because of Donald Cerrone’s recent fight history, his deteriorating chin, and Yancy Medeiros aggressive style, Yancy Medeiros will win by knockout.

Prediction: Yancy Medeiros

Winner: Donald Cerrone